2019 Year in Review Pt. 1 - Dave Collum

2019 Year in Review Pt. 1 - Dave Collum

. 2 min read

About this episode

Dave Collum joins this episode of the End of the Chain with host Samuel McCulloch to break down his 2019 Year in Review. Dave is our most popular guest so far and for good reason. His witty writings are the highlight of my December. Dave and Samuel spoke for 5 hours and so this podcast will be broken up into a series of 3.


Where to find the show

iTunes | Spotify | Stitcher | Youtube | RSS Feed

What to listen for

  • Why markets are no exception to the chemist’s rule - when anything returns to equilibrium from a very unstable state, it does huge damage (you blow up the laboratory).
  • Why China’s massive debt to GDP credit bubble is hard to predict as there is no history of what happens in China when bubbles burst.
  • How 14% of the Fortune 500 cannot pay interest on their corporate debt with their cash flow, which means that they are insolvent and haven’t been downgraded YET.
  • Why if one entity owns all those loans left over from the financial crisis, and no one sells them on the open market, then this is distorting price discovery.
  • How MMT hasn’t a clue how to deal with inflation no matter what they say and that cutting the pie into different pieces is not wealth creation, nor is printing money.
  • How a sovereign state can actually save, in a world of long-running trade imbalances, and if that is even remotely possible. (Triffin's Dilemma)
  • Why we are going back to the 1920's and the debate about whether we let the free market run society or whether we centralise decision making is coming back round again.
  • Why the battle is really between labour and capital; if you make capital free, you make labour cheap.
  • How this arbitrage drives the shortening product cycle and squanders resources.
  • Why the Fed does not have a shot clock for the economy and are burning up price discovery in their wake.
  • Why Dave thinks Bitcoin is only good for speculation in the background, like Dutch tulip bulbs, but the Bitcoin crowd is making progress with him.
  • Why Sam thinks DeFi is the best thing to be built on Ethereum yet and that it is an alternative to fixed income for better returns.
  • Why even when you have a really good idea, you still need confirmation bias.
  • How Dave was a bull in the 1990's, but the last decade was a washout because he didn’t even beat inflation.
  • Why there is no upside for Dave in taking big risks with his portfolio as he approaches retirement.


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